Anthropic models AI's impact on wages by 2030

Imagine it's 2030 and the economy is booming. AI can do 50% of all knowledge work, but your job is worth less because of it. That's one of the future's anthropic just modeled. They just released a full report on what AI could do to jobs, wages and the economy by 2030.

Comment 2030 and I'll send you the full report. But here's what they're saying. In an anthropic substantial scenario, AI can do half of knowledge work. The economy grows roughly twice as fast. GDP is 8.3% bigger, but knowledge worker wages basically don't grow

and their extreme scenario gets even crazier. The economy grows 15% a year. GDP hits 44 trillion, but knowledge worker wages actually fall more than 10%. And think about what that means. The economy gets richer while your paycheck gets smaller. And where does that money go?

More of it goes to the people who own things. Today, for every dollar of value the economy creates, roughly 60 cents goes to workers and 40 cents goes to owners. In an anthropic extreme scenario, that basically flips. 45 cents go to workers and 55 cents go to owners.

That's the part everyone needs to understand. If AI makes labor cheaper, then the things AI can't simply manufacture more of become more valuable. Ownership, owning equity, owning businesses, owning intellectual property, distribution, having an audience, customers, a brand or a community,

trust in relationships, knowing who to call and being someone people want to work with. And then lastly is judgment, knowing what questions to ask and what to build and how to direct AI. So my advice for the next four years isn't just learn AI. It's use AI to create leverage,

build relationships, build distribution and wherever possible own what you're building. Because if anthropic is right, AI could make the world dramatically richer, but that doesn't automatically mean it makes you richer. For every business and every business model, I'm here to dive deeper.

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